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Senate Majority Bipartisan Coalition Website
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State Senator District E
Senate Majority Leader
Senator Cathy Giessel Newsletter
UPDATES
Issues affecting
your family, community and jobs.
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Dear friends and neighbors,
Photo: Oil Spill Response Training in Whittier area on October 30. Prince William Sound Regional Citizens' Advisory Council, in partnership with Alyeska Pipeline Service Company sponsored the event to observe the annual fishing fleet training for state-of-the-art oil cleanup equipment and systems practice.
Tonight: Home and Landowners Org (HALO) Election/Candidate Forum is tonight (Oct 3), 6-8:30 PM, at Alaska Zoo Community Room.
Newsletter Content: I try really hard to keep these newsletters from being so big/long. Sometimes I hold back information because a newsletter has gotten so long. I'm going to do that today with Permanent Fund Corporation and Trends - Alaska Jobs Projections news. I'm holding it until next week.
Finance Update
The Legislative Finance Update is a cautionary note for everyone. Oil price is very volatile right now. I've included articles in past newsletters by experts about the expected fall in prices. We have very low savings. The Earnings Reserve Account (ERA) of the Permanent Fund is shrinking and will not have the reserves needed to pay a dividend or fund much of the budget by FY 2027 (2 years from now).
What can we do about this? The Permanent Fund Corporation made recommendations in the Trustees Paper #10 which is in this link.
Items in this Newsletter:
· Legislative Finance Update (Hint: falling oil price impact)
· Sexual Assault Forensics Training, UAA
· AFN Workshop: Understanding the Subsistence Framework in Alaska
· Alaska Resource Advisory Council for BLM Application
· AK DOT Receives $1B for STIP Corrections
· AK DOT EMS Organizations Funding Opportunity
· Current Topics, Stuff I Found Interesting, Economy, Education, Politics, Healthcare
· Resource Values, Permanent Fund
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September 30, 2024
September 2024 Newsletter
Welcome to the Legislative Finance Division's interim newsletter! We intend to send these out periodically until the January session. These newsletters will provide updates on the State's fiscal situation and keep legislators, staff, and the interested public informed of LFD publications.
Oil Price Sensitivity for FY25 Budget
In FY24, the budget split revenue beyond the Spring 2023 forecast between an energy relief payment and the Constitutional Budget Reserve (CBR). The legislature revised that provision during the 2024 session, and ultimately a $190.0 million energy relief appropriation added $298 to the FY25 PFD payment to Alaskans. The projected $112.8 million surplus was deposited into the CBR (savings).
In FY25 (current budget year), at the forecast price of $78, there is a projected budget surplus of $146.9 million. If oil revenue falls short of the forecast, there is no deficit-filling provision that would occur at prices below about $75 per barrel. Alaska North Slope crude prices have averaged $79.83 through Friday, September 27, but had dropped to $73.33 by that day. It is possible that the legislature will need to address a deficit when lawmakers convene in January 2025, particularly when supplemental appropriations are added to the existing FY25 budget. As there is no balance in the majority-access Statutory Budget Reserve (SBR), this likely means that the legislature will need a 3/4 vote to tap the CBR unless oil prices rebound.
If prices exceed the forecast in FY25, there is once again an energy relief provision. In FY25, that kicks in if revenue exceeds the forecast by $135.0 million or more about $81 oil or higher. This provision splits revenue 50/50 between an energy relief payment that will be part of the FY26 PFD, and a deposit to the SBR. This split is capped at $322.5 million for each purpose (enough to add about $500 to the FY26 PFD). Beyond that, any additional revenue is appropriated to the CBR.
To receive these Legislative Finance Division newsletters directly, you can subscribe here.
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AFN is hosting the "Understanding the Subsistence Framework in Alaska" workshop on October 16, 2024. This educational session will provide an overview of the legal structure of subsistence management in Alaska and explore pathways to advance Alaska Native customary and traditional hunting and fishing rights.
This workshop is free and open to the public and will be live-streamed for those unable to attend in person. Please join us to learn more about our complex subsistence management structure and explore options to advance our Native hunting and fishing rights. We look forward to supporting all our communities in understanding existing structures so we can collectively advocate for the options that best advance Alaska Native subsistence rights.
There will also be an opportunity to engage in a dialogue and ask questions with subsistence legal and policy experts and AFN leadership.
Date: October 16, 2024
Time: 1:00 PM - 4:30 PM (AKDT)
Livestream Link: https://nativefederation.org/afn-subsistence-workshop-2024/
RSVP by clicking HERE.
AFN also encourages you to review our Subsistence Series of Workshops hosted in 2022 for a more in-depth presentation on the Alaska legal and policy framework of subsistence management. You can access the series at the following link: Subsistence Workshop Series 2022.
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BLM Seeks Applicants for Alaska Resource Advisory Council
Bureau seeks diverse membership to help advise public land management
ANCHORAGE, Alaska – Today, the Bureau of Land Management announced a 30-day call for public applicants to the Alaska Resource Advisory Council (RAC). To be considered, all application documents must be emailed to RAC Coordinator, Azure Hall, ahall@blm.gov, no later than Oct. 26, 2024.
Individuals may apply or nominate others to serve on the RAC. Application forms may be downloaded from the National RAC website: https://www.blm.gov/get-involved/resource-advisory-council/apply. Each completed application must also be submitted with at least one letter of reference from any represented interests or organizations and any other information that speaks to the nominee’s qualifications, such as a resume or biography. All applicants must be Alaska residents and will be appointed based on their training, education, and knowledge of the state. Applicants should also demonstrate a commitment to consensus building and collaborative decision-making.
The Alaska RAC has up to 15 members representing diverse interests from communities across Alaska. During three-year service terms including two to three yearly meetings, members work together to provide solution-oriented recommendations that address public land management issues and benefit all Alaskans.
The Alaska RAC is seeking two nominees in the following categories:
· One in Category Two – Representatives of archeological and historic organizations; dispersed recreation users; and nationally or regionally-recognized environmental organizations.
· One in Category Three – Representatives of State, county, or local elected office; Alaska Native Tribes located within or adjacent to the area for which the RAC is organized; academicians employed in natural resource management or natural sciences; employees of a state agency responsible for management of natural resources; and the public at large.
For more information, please contact Alaska RAC Coordinator Azure Hall, ahall@blm.gov
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Alaska DOT&PF secures over $1B of transportation funding in FY2024 STIP Amendment #1 partial approval resolves ten of 14 corrective actions.
(ANCHORAGE, Alaska) — The Alaska Department of Transportation & Public Facilities (DOT&PF) concludes the 2024 federal fiscal year with the successful delivery of over $1B of transportation related projects. This includes over $650 million in federally funded highways projects, over $300M in federally funded aviation projects, and many other projects funded through the State of Alaska capital budget.
“Overall, as in previous years, we obligated every federal dollar available to us on transportation projects” said Dom Pannone, Alaska DOT&PF Program Management and Administration Director. “Our team successfully obligated $662 million in Federal Highways dollars alone, despite the fact that the August Redistribution amount approved by FHWA was lower than recent years.”
In addition, STIP Amendment #1 partial approval was received this week. Five Railbelt projects were excluded, including the Richardson Highway MP 346 Bridge project that was determined in March to meet federal regulatory requirements for exemptions from air quality conformity analysis. This was confirmed March 8, 2024, by interagency consultation facilitated by FAST Planning and comprised of experts from DEC, EPA, FTA, and FHWA. The project currently resides outside the MPO boundaries but within the air quality non-attainment area. DOT&PF will be evaluating this finding, among others, with federal partners.
Another 18 rural projects were excluded, which were all discretionary grants applied for by Tribal, village or other rural entities. This exclusion does not mean that the projects will not move forward, but rather FHWA's preference for where the projects are listed. Whenever the directions from the federal government are not clear, the department will err on the side of caution, including discretionary grants in the STIP to avoid the project not being able to advance. The exclusion provides the clarity the state and local sponsors need to move forward.
Partial approvals have not been used in the past but are becoming more frequent for FHWA to communicate expectations to the State's STIP team in writing to formally codify the new expectations with Alaska.
“We want to thank our federal partners for working with us over the past six months on successfully delivering Alaska’s transportation program in 2024," said Commissioner Ryan Anderson. “Alaska’s unique challenges and opportunities require careful consideration of the State’s role in sovereignty in advancing infrastructure decisions, in coordination with federal, state, and local partners, in the last frontier."
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DOT&PF Announces Funding Opportunity for EMS Organizations $150,000 will be granted for safety equipment and training.
(FAIRBANKS, Alaska) – The Alaska Department of Transportation & Public Facilities (DOT&PF) announces the launch of a new funding opportunity for Emergency Medical Services (EMS) organizations across the state. With a maximum request of $150,000, this initiative is designed to provide essential equipment and training to support EMS providers in keeping Alaska's roadways safe.
DOT&PF may select one agency to receive the $150,000 grant or may consider multiple qualified applicants for the available funding.
Applications for this funding are now open and must be submitted by October 30, 2024, at 5 PM AKST. This program aims to enhance the capacity of EMS responders, equipping them with the tools and training needed to save lives and reduce accidents on Alaska's roads.
“Having well trained and well-equipped emergency medical services along our highway systems is key to improving public safety,” said DOT&PF Commissioner Ryan Anderson. “We have allocated $150,000 to begin a program of equipping these important first response resources to help save lives.”
Program Overview:
· Maximum Funding per Agency: $150,000
· Eligible Uses: Equipment purchases, training programs, and tools that directly support roadway safety.
· Submission Deadline: October 30, 2024, by 5 PM AKST
DOT&PF encourages all EMS agencies, especially those serving rural and under-resourced areas, to apply for this funding opportunity. By investing in the safety of Alaska's roadways, DOT&PF aims to reduce fatalities and injuries while supporting the life-saving work of our EMS providers.
One agency may be selected to receive up to $150,000 or DOT&PF may consider multiple qualified applicants for the available funding.
How to Apply:
EMS agencies can access the application form and submission instructions at https://form.jotform.com/242556459642162 or by contacting Jocelyn Swindel at Jocelyn.swindel@alaska.gov.
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Current Topics
How Alaska regulators ignored a gas conservation scheme. Alaska Beacon (Northern Journal with Nat Herz)
The commission rejected a proposal by Chugach to raise its allowed profit margin, calculated using a financial benchmark called “times interest earned ratio,” or TIER. The utility wanted to raise its TIER — a ratio expressing how much the utility’s yearly earnings exceed its required debt payments — to 1.75 from 1.55, which, the commission said, would have raised rates by a total of $7.7 million. The commission also rejected a request by Chugach to charge other utilities money to ship power across transmission lines it acquired when it bought Anchorage’s city-owned utility in 2020.
(My comment: Nat does a great job on his report. For the record, I disagree with REAP, which is irrationally proposing that some people be charged more for gas if they exceed a set limit. I reject the concept that businesses or people who use hydrocarbons to heat their homes should be penalized. I am all in favor of various renewables such as hydro and others, as well as nuclear. But the fact is we will continue to need hydrocarbons for base load. I disagree with both sides of the energy extremes; we need it all in our Arctic environment.)
Global hydrogen and election 2024. Axios
Cleanly produced hydrogen has industrial, power, and transport uses — if it ever achieves scale. IEA's new report finds that projects announced to date could yield 49 million tons per year by 2030, a 30% rise over last year's estimate.
(My comment: Alaska has an opportunity here.)
Biden official vows new "flexibilities" in key hydrogen rule. Axios
The Treasury Department is signaling — albeit vaguely — that it's easing qualification standards for tax subsidies to produce climate-friendly hydrogen.
Stuff I Found Interesting
Facing the Facts to Keep Our Biometrics Secure. NIST
An attacker could copy a person’s identity by using that person’s photo to bypass facial recognition to gain access to the victim’s phone or bank account. Another tricky facial recognition technology threat is when someone merges two people’s faces into one photo and uses it to commit identity fraud. This is called “morphing,” and it’s easy to do with various online or mobile tools. It creates real security risks if a person gets a passport with a morphed photo, because it allows multiple people to use the same passport.
National Security
Close Call with Russian Fighter KNOM
After a close encounter with a Russian jet last week [September 23], U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan is calling for the U.S. military to continue building its presence in Alaska to “meet force with force”.
Russian aircraft again intercepted in international airspace off Alaska. Alaska Public Media
Monday’s sortie was the first time Russian aircraft have returned to the Alaska ID Zone since early last week, when two maritime surveillance aircraft were detected and tracked. That was the last of four formations known to have flown through the ADIZ from Sept. 11 through Sept. 15.
U.S. Coast Guard watching uptick in Russian, Chinese navy activity near Alaska. Eye on the Arctic
“So what we do is we meet presence with presence. So when they go out there, we ensure they know that we are there, we establish communications. Sometimes they tell us that they’re just transiting through and they’ll be out of our EEZ very soon, and other times we sit and we watch and shadow them as they go forth.” The U.S. Coast Guard exchanges information with the U.S. military as well as Canada, he said, but added encounters with the Russians or Chinese had all to date been professional.
China's coast guard enters Arctic for the first time for patrol with Russia. Reuters
A Chinese coast guard fleet has entered the Arctic sea for the first time, for a joint patrol with Russian counterparts. This follows similar joint patrols the two nations have been carrying out in the northern Pacific Ocean since Sept. 21, the report said.
First Canada-Nordic Strategic Dialogue High North News
In a joint statement issues by Global Affairs Canada after the meeting, the representatives of the Arctic nations says that Canada and the Nordic countries enjoy a strong and deepening partnership, "anchored in our common democratic values, shared interests in the North Atlantic and the Arctic region, as well as our commitment to the rules-based international order, multilateral cooperation, international law, democracy, human rights, and tackling disinformation."
Economy
The economic imperative for Alaska pension reform. ADN
Do we fund police and schools, or allow Outside interests to destroy the most basic services that the private sector needs to thrive?
In the struggle for public-sector workers, pensions help. Forbes
A defined benefit (DB) pension plan has long been a tool used by employers to recruit and retain employees, which has proven particularly effective for public-sector workers like teachers, police officers, firefighters, and sanitation workers.
Politics
Oregon voters to decide on ballot measure to give every resident $1,600 that has sparked massive opposition fundraising. Oregon Live
Oregon voters will decide this fall whether to increase corporate taxes to establish the nation’s largest universal basic income program. Funded by a new corporate tax, it would give every Oregonian an estimated $1,600 per year.
(My comment: Yikes, OR, this is wrong direction!)
Health Care
Governor signs bill to regulate pharmacy benefit managers. Alaska's News Source
Gov. Mike Dunleavy signed a bill into law Monday that aims to ensure consumers have access to affordable prescriptions and level the playing field for local independent pharmacies.
In 2023, we lost 357 Alaskans to fatal drug overdoses, 265 of which involved opioids. Overdose death rates were highest among men, American Indian/Alaska Native people, people aged 35-44, and people located in the Anchorage region.
Hospital fair share spending. Lown Institute Hospitals Index
Five Catholic health systems are among the ten systems with the greatest fair share deficits: Providence, CommonSpirit, Trinity, Ascension, and Bon Secours Mercy.
Why tackling the root causes is so hard. Axios
From Stat: "North Carolina's experience shows how big nonprofit hospitals could use their political influence to ensure that they make money off of a broader national initiative. If they succeed, taxpayers could end up paying hospitals for medical bills that should have been covered by charity programs for poor patients, or that could have been canceled far more cheaply."
And from KFF Health News: "Multibillion-dollar health systems and the industry's powerful trade group vigorously fought the medical debt plan, records show. They sowed fears of collapsing rural health care. They warned of legal fights and a showdown with the legislature. And they maneuvered to get the federal government to kill the plan."
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Alaska Oil Resource Values
Alaska North Slope crude oil price (10/2/24): $75.49
FY24 budget (beginning 7/1) is fully funded at a
forecast of $73/barrel of oil.
Price on 9/30/23: $87.99
Price on 9/30/22: $86.91
Price on 6/29/22: $116.84
Price on 3/08/22: $125.44
Price on 12/22/21: $75.55
ANS production (10/1/24): 464,617 bpd
China extracts commercially viable natural gas from deeper shale formations. EIA
China is a major natural gas importer by pipeline and the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the last 10 years, the Chinese government has actively supported the development of unconventional natural gas resources to reduce import dependence and enhance energy security.
Catch up quick on EVs: Ford, storms, China. Axios
EVs can catch fire if inundated with salt water, so "owners who live in the path of a major storm like Hurricane Helene should take precautions and prepare for the possibility that they'll be unable to charge their cars during a power outage."
Risk roars back into oil prices. Axios
Brent crude oil prices rose to over $75 Wednesday after surging Tuesday too. Iran's missile attacks on Israel Wednesday , and the potential Israeli response, are raising the geopolitical risk premium.
Precious Metal Prices
October 2, 2024
Gold - $2656.40
Silver - $31.66
Platinum - $1006.00
Palladium - $1028.00
Rhodium - $5025.00
Alaska Permanent Fund
website
Fund value September 30, 2024 - $82,124,300,000
PFD payout from ERA, Fiscal years 1980-2024: $43.9 Billion
$100 Billion total earnings over lifetime of the Permanent Fund
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My family used to be amateur cross country runners. (Well, our daughter won races in high school, but the rest of us were just running for fun.) Fall is such a great time to be on the gold covered trails, breathing in the beautiful fragrance of the high bush cranberries! But now I just walk.
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Click here to see list of accomplishments from the 33rd Alaska State Legislature Senate Majority.
Click here to view my webpage. It has links to all previous newsletters.
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